Sentinels Statistics Project

Games Sentinels of the Multiverse
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I'm cross posting this cause it is quite probable that many players don't head into the Rules form, not wanting to deal with what can come when passionate gamer geeks start debating what a rule means XD

 

We have been collecting game results to start building a comprehensive statistics listing on how effective various heroes are, and how deadly villains and environments are - among many other statistics. It is entirely for fun (at least for me! lol) and I am certain with time, many interesting thing's will come of it.

 

The Project Thread

Check it out  Here: https://sentinelsofthemultiverse.com/forum/topic/the-best-heroes-a-statistical-community-effort-2798

Due to increased real life commitments, I haven't been able to keep this updated. We are STILL taking data! Don't stop! Arathorn's version below is less frequently updated, but far more intense in its statistics. Keep putting that data in!

 

Alternative, awesome view by Arathorn:

http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/Sentinels1/Overview?:embed=y&:display_count=no which 

 

The Form to enter your own games:

to fill out your own games is linked in that thread  and also here:

 

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1zCJwaHbUeS9VqbIhqZj2zAJ1TuWq5E0lnHWndheq1IM/viewform#start=invite

 

**Please Note, due to the huge number of calculations I have that run of that sheet to make my life easier in updating the Tracking Report, that form can take a while to run through its submit -20-30 seconds is not uncommon. Please be patient and only hit the Submit Button Once.

**Please Note the Second: I have done what I can to fix this - but it still takes 10-15 seconds or so to submit. Please be patient.

**PPlease Note the Third: Now on new  Google Sheets, which should be far far far faster.

 

The Official Monthly Report

Thanks to the hard work of Arathorn, a very comprehensive comparison study is being undertaken with the results. Since I could not continue to handle the work with my Real Life commitments, Arathorn has graciously taken over. He updatest his fairly regularly, and it has GREAT information - Including a page with all the raw data on it! Amazing report, and great information if you trust these sorts of things ;)

Fiew it here: http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/Sentinels1/Overview?:embed=y&:display_count=no

 

The Naive Bayes Difficultly System

Thanks to the hard work of mkgrey, the stats are being inputed into a naive Bayes Difficulty calculation. This works by a point system - the more points, the harder the game, the less the easier. Of course more data is needed to make this really effective, so like above, keep putting in more games!

Find it here: http://x.gray.org/sentinels-of-the-multiverse-difficulty-scores.html

rkcr took this model and put it into an android randomizer app. See it here: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.idunnolol.sotm&hl=en

 

Want to see some general data of your Entries? Or Specific Hero/Villain data?

 

**Please Note: This no longer works. Its going to be back but not for a while.

 

Want to Comment about the Project?  

If you don't mind leaving this thread for the official updates, that be great. Head over to Here to leave comments and suggetions and anything else you want to leave, so we can keep it all in one place (The official thread on the Rules forum) Thanks!

 

Want old information for Comparison?

Head to this Dropbox to get the information. You can even download the raw data (including all my formulas for sorting out information) if you want to find some specific values yourself that I don't compute! (ie, you want to see how many times The Wraith has played with Legacy and Omnitron X against Baron Blade... you can! I leave it up to you to write your own formulas tho :P)

 

Over 4000 Entries as of 7/5/2013!

(actually 4138- we're clearly averaging between 600-700 entries a month, or 27.4 perday)

July 2014 - Removed outdated report links, updated Arathorns report to be the Official Report.

July Update - 4138 entries!

June Update - 3489 entries!

May Update Blurb - 2823 entries!

April Update Blurb - 1817 entries!

March Update Blurb - 934 entries!

Take a look! Have some fun! and certainly, put your own games into the tracker for next month!

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*Noting Feburary Update. Will note this thread sooner   in march :p

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Okay! The March update is on the sheet! Go check it out!

 

Some interesting developments this month! The Chairmain has lost his top spot of the Most Dangerous villain. Excluding Promos, Matriarch has gotten a nice lead... but if you keep the promos in Cosmic Omnitron had decimated the heroes this month, surging forward into the 50% danger range!

 

Baron Blade has fallen down into the high 20% range, showing that as we get more games that fluke of him being super dangerous is leveling out. Poor Akashbuhuta still rounds out the bottom of the villain pile though for wins, despite being the second most villain played. Well, I guess thats a good thing - we like the earth still standing.

 

 

Heroe wise, Tempest, Legacy and Wraith remain the most popular heroes to play - and Legacy (excluding Promo, playtesting) remains the most powerful hero. Bunker has fallen to the least likely to win a game with a mere 63.29% win rate, followed by Absolute Zero at 64.32 - wraith has jumped from her bottom slot into the solid middle - the high 60's range.

 

A new stat was added on the Most Incapacitated column - if said hero was incapacitated, did the team still go on to win? Again, excluding Promo and Playtesting heroes, you msot certainly want Unity on your side, with a 25.45% chance that if she gets incapacitated you're still going to win the game... but not haka, with a mere 10% chance to still win the game after he goes down... Maybe that just means he's just that crucial to victory?

 

Rook City remains our Top Contender for most dangerous enviroment, and if you want an easy day hit up the Realm of Discord.

 

Cool stuff happened this month - The Self Destruct Sequence went off in Wagner Mars Base! As well as Omnitron getting his first defeat with Distributed Code still in play.

 

Looking for an Easy Game?

 

You Could try Legacy, Ra, Tachyon and Tempest, in the Realms of Discord against Akash'Bhuta (straight percentages)

 

Really want to stack the Deck? Akash'Bhuta has never defated a tea of 3, and never in ... well a lot of environments. So the above should be pretty dang easy!

 

Looking for a Hard Game?

 

Take on the Matriarch in Rook City, with Unity, Mr Fixer, and Nightmist -- Excluding Promo's those 3 heroes and that enviroment is where the Matriarch is the strongest!

 

 

 

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0:23:13 and 0:23:22 , 3/19/13

Are duplicats (sorry, didn't know you can't hit back)

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The Tracker has been updated for April! Go check it out!

 

 

Wow! Shattered timelines is here and amazingly what changes we see now! You can tell people did a lot of playing with all the Shattered Timelines stuff at once - Chrono Ranger and OX both have over 20 games with ST Villains but less than 10 each with the others. Still the games are getting out there and we're seeing some fun new things!

 

Heroes

For instance, now that people have got their hands on Team Leader Tachyon she has quickly become a favorite - shooting up to 140 games in the last month, and taking the lead above even Legacy for Heroes with more than 100 games - 85.21% victory rate, almost 3% more than Legacy! looks like Tachyone makes a better Freedom (#) team leader than the ol Parsons!

 

AbZero is still having trouble, hovering around the 65% range, but Wraith has shot up into the 70s, which seems to be the Median for heroes. That said, Even Expat and Fixer, long said to be the 'Weakest' are only about a percent and a half from hitting that middle ground where it seems that most heroes are found.

 

Eternal Haka continues to be the worst hero to drop out of a fight - if he does, his team has never won once he's hit incap. Excluding the low value promo heroes, Chrono Ranger and Omnitron-X have over a 35% win rate after gettting Incapped. If someone has to go down, these two seem to give the best!

 

Villains

As most expected, Iron Legacy is now dominating the difficulty chart, with a 50.94% loss rate against him. Cosmic Omnitron is still right behind him, with both around the 50 game range. Chairman and Matriarch arent quite giving up their Rank 4 status however, giving a strong showing at 47%.

 

Ambuscade has apparently turned into the jokester of the bunch, droppiong down to a mere 9% loss rate against, with Miss Information and Kismet dropping below Akash too - I guess Choas Bound had a good month in destroying heroes. I do hope to see the Assistant pull up a little stronger, and Kismet as well - Both have been brutal in the games /ive/ played against them so Im hoping they see a stronger showing in months to come!

 

Environments

Rook City remains dominate, and Time Cataclysm is the new set's current favorite with over 100 games. Silver Gulch proves to be the most dangerous, but Ive yet to see anyone Lost in TIme... however we have had 2 Self Destruct sequences go off! (Hate to break it to a one of you guys, that /is/ a loss :P)

 

Other

4 Heroes seems to remain the sweet spot for getting the magic number of 2/3rds wins (What we can now reliably draw as the average win rate) managing such even against Iron Legacy (65% win rate with 4 heroes)

I may be adding a few more data sets - that is, some more organization in the near future - Such as groupings by expansions to see just the expansions data, and perhaps averaging out data amongst expansions to see which expansion leads what categories. Look out for new categories to appear in the Report to be filled in next month

Also, I'm now saving copies of each months report, and the raw data on my computer. I may put them up in a DropBox or something too for general consumptions - this means ill be able to make comparisons month to month (or others will) to see how they fair

 

Again, if you havent seen it yet, the Raw Data sheet has a personal entry tracker - go to the last sheet, put in your username, and change the second field to on, then go back a sheet to see your entries. NOTE! if you put your username in differently, well youll be SoL - if you add a space to the end accidently, it will read it as a different username. There isn't much I can really do about it, unfortunately. Try not to mess up your Username!

 

Oh, and i went through -all- the points and removed some duplicate games i found, so a few of the smaller datapoint groups (ie, some promo heroes) may see a few games lost, but for the most part no difference will be noted.

 

Wanna Try a game no one has done yet?

 

 

Wraith: Rook City, and The Eternal Haka (and one more) against Baron Blade in the Final Wasteland has 0's all around in there

 

Or Bunker Engine of War and Wraith; Price of Freedom  (and someone) against Spite in Silver Gulch 1883 is another set with a  lot of 0s'. Wanting a challenge? Try looking for the lowest Percentage groupings and try your luck!

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Not that statiscally matters much, I wonder how many of those 4 Heroes are played by 2 players.

Its just from what I have seen 4 minds colliding is much differnet than 2 people having to manage 2 Heroes.

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Nice data.  I took it and generated a naive Bayes win/loss predictor from it and translated that into a "difficulty points" system to estimate how hard any given game is:

http://x.gray.org/sentinels-of-the-multiverse-difficulty-scores.html

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Fantastic!  The data is obviously not completely solid yet though.  No way Miss Information is the easiest villain or that Mad Bomber Blade is only slightly more difficult than his normal version.

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I love it! But spiff is right, several of them still need a /lot/ more data to be properly analyized.

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Yeah, I agree some of it seems a bit off (particularly Miss Information), but in the data she has (by some margin) the highest win rate (93%) for the heroes, and over more the 50 games.  But, I suspect there's some sample bias, which is hard to correct for, but I also suspect that some villains feel harder even though their actual win rates are quite comparable to others.

I'll run it again in a couple months once there's more data.

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Added a Dropbox link ( https://www.dropbox.com/sh/9t6pyl7zb76wony/ynMJKqGZWP ) to get the archived data that ill be storing. This includes the Raw Data up to that point, if people want to fool around with custom searches, like Specific teams and such.

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Once the data gets to the point where we think it's reliable, I'd love to add this to the Randomizer so that when it shows you the random lineup for a game it can also give you an indicator of how easy/hard that game is likely to be.

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That would be cool.

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Anyone from the company that makes Sentinels Sidekick care to comment on the plausability of adding functionality to Sentinels Sidekick so that it could facilitate reporting the results of a game?

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While waiting for the May monthly report to come out I downloaded a copy of the raw data spreadsheet and started pulling some info out of it. I was looking at Environment/Villain pairs. The number of games per pair is still too low to be able to make any statements about the results but I was surprised that there are some pairings that have never occurred.

Akash'bhuta has never appeared at The Block despite there being 151 games played there.

The Chairman has never appeared at The Final Wasteland after 166 battles fought there.

Spite has never participated in a battle at Silver Gulch after 140 battles occurred there.

The Chairman has not appeared in the Time Cataclysm. There have been 206 games there.

Iron Legacy has been played twice at the Pike Industrial Complex and once at the Ruins of Atlantis. He has never been defeated at either location.

Cosmic Omnitron has never wreaked havoc at Rook City after 209 games played at Rook City. La Capitan has only menaced the city twice but won on both occasions.

Looking forward to the official report :)

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FYI, I've built an updated version of the naive Bayes difficulty model (and made it so I'll be able to update it more frequently), and updated the web page.  There's no huge changes, but I added some data on some advanced villains.  In general, there's not enough data to draw firm conlusions about villains on advanced mode, but in a few cases, they (preliminarily) appear to be so much harder than their base villain it was worth mentioning.

Both Miss Information and The Ennead rise in difficulty profoundly on the advanced setting, seemingly.  But, those conclusions are based on 18 and 40 games respectively, so it would be good to get more data.

It's interesting, given people's initial reaction, that basic Miss Information continues to be the easiest villain (tied with Gloomweaver), with only 6 hero defeats in 86 games.

The gap between Baron Blade and the Mad Bomber version has widened meaningfully with more data.

http://x.gray.org/sentinels-of-the-multiverse-difficulty-scores.html

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Update for everyone 5/5/13

 

This is a very busy week for me at work. I thought I'd find some time to finish this out over the weekend, but didnt.

 

Tonight, I got the Villians, Indivdiual Villans, Heroes, and Environmentpages updated with the current data. I saved the data I am working with to update the Individual Hero Page soon. It probably will be weds.

 

But the data that everyone really wants, how 'effective' a hero is or how 'dangerous' a villain is there and ready to go.

 

Interesting tnote, as Heores start to hit the 350-500 game marks, Legacy has certainly lost his top mark to TlT and even The Scholar, and Yes. The Dreamer was more dangerous than her previous information indicated, jumping up to a 32.09% loss against rate.

 

 

also, it seems a little less than half the games played are solo. Interesting.

 

 

As I said, Ill be updating the 'Indivdiual Hero Page' come Weds.

 

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Hey all - I took mkgray's score system and integrated it into an Android app for randomly selecting game setups: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.idunnolol.sotm

I did a test run of it last night and it worked great; the first mission was a bit too easy (at around 75%) and then we bumped it up to a lot harder difficulty (40%) and it was quite challenging.

Enjoy!

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That is very cool. Thanks!

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May Update

 

Time Time time!

 

May found me far more busy than I expected. Work, Progress, and a lot of other things in life delayed the Update for 5 days. Even then I wasn't able to finish it. However, I have moved forward with a diffrent plan.

 

The Individual Villain and Individual Hero pages on the report have been removed. I have instead replaced them (well at this time just hero) look up function simlar to the look up your username function on the Statistics page. If  you go to that same link for the Username look up, you can also select from a drop down menu of Villains and Heroes, selecting one will allow you to view the stats for that hero or villain individually,just like  the stats on the individual pages. 

 

This is kinda awesome in two ways - 1) I don't have to do nearly as much work and 2) We can pull information I wasn't pulling before. You can see now that you can look up the actual individual advanced rates for each hero rather than just the generic. And thats just the start. I can probably  roll in some formula's to find out other aspects, like the best 2 pair combos of heroes, or other things that may be of interest to the avid gamer.  

 

More still needs to be added - i need to add the Team Size and the Position trackers to Heroes, and do all the Villain  formulas. But over the course of this month Ill get them added. And even better, that is all live data, up to the minute with all the current entries (so you may see some weird numbers on occassion - people often put in incorrect data, such as saying Heroes Incapacitated when everyone was alive, or saying Win=Nowhen it was a yes and other things that I often have to fix.)

 

In other news, we had 2800 games on the tracker. (as of today were over 3k in the raw data)

 

That's just amazing! Amaaazing!