I think this project is awesome and I have been adding a lot of games over the last few months. I really appreciate the work that went into getting this all set up. Now that it is Mid-November and I see Arathorn was last in the forums 4 months ago I began to worry that the sheets will no longer update and any activity added is now in vain. Does anyone know if these awesome sheets will be updated? If not, is there another way to see the raw data?
Thank you
the sheets are sometimes updated randomly, but we always come back to them. It may go by the wayside for a while, but it always comes back :)
I was just hoping to update tomorrow.... It's always on my mind; life is just busy.
Updated! Thanks for the reminders, all!
Arathorn
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-
*breathe*
hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
I can't submit statistics for games with the SS Tachyon in them, this is a disaster!
Do what I do, put it in as Tachyon and put in the comments that is it SS Tachyon, that way it can be fixed when SS Tachyon is added!
Thanks so much for the update and this project
I completely forgot to get off my butt and update it. ><
Super Scientific Tachyon
is now added as an option after Team Leader Tachyon in all relevant fields.
I jumped the gun a little bit, since we have the names of everyone from WotC.
All the environments, heroes, villains, and promo's are up on the Survey now. Playtesters, if you are using the final proofs then by all means, put the data in, but if you arent then don't :P
have fun everyone!
(if anyone see's something i forgot and or missed or see's that i missspelled something, let me know!
Forgot the end parenthesis.
I just thought of something.
how the FRACK are we going to Statistic 10 new Vengeance style villains? SON OF A....
considering I think there is something like 3003 variations of all 15... gah....
It's a kind of magic...
I was looking at the tables on the Tableaux web page in detail today, and found something that confuses me. So hopefully Arathorn or someone else will see this and take a look.
If you look at the "Villain" tab, as of this moment, you can see that column headings are
"Villain", "Heroes Win?", "Villain Loss Pct", "Total Number of Games"
Now look a the lines for Kaargra Warfang compared to Infinitor. In both cases, the "Total Number of Games" is 3. However, the "Villain Loss Pct" is 33.33% for Kaargra and 27.27% for Infinitor. For Kaargra, this makes sense.
But for Infinitor, this seems impossible. If there are really 3 total games, then the only possible values for "Villain Loss Pct" are 0%, 33.33%, 66.66% or 100%. So where is that 27.27% coming from? Now it's possible the column is mislabeled, and should actually say "Total Number of Games Lost to Villain". If that were the case, then that would mean there are 9 total games for Kaargra and 11 total games for Infinitor, except...take a look at Progeny. Progeny shows 3 games and 38.46%. There is no whole number ratio with 3 in the numerator that gives that percentage. (3/7 = 0.4286, 3/8 =0.375). In fact, 5/13 = 38.46%. So where is the 3 coming from?
Now look at the "Environment" tab. It has columns labeled...
"Enivironment", "Heroes Win?", "Hero Win Pct", "Total Number of Games Won in Environment"
Now look at the line for Omintron IV. It shows the "Total Number of Games Won in Environment" is 4, and the "Hero Win Pct" is 72.22%. Except, again, this is not possible. There is no whole number denominator X for which 4/X = 0.7222 (4/5=0.8 and 4/6=0.6666). In fact, this percentage is 13/18, and there really isn't any way to reasonably manipulate those two numbers I can think of to get to 4.
So something seems screwy. It's easy to see the problem with the new Wrath items because the total number of games is still small. but I have to assume that the same problem exists on all the other lines, it's just harder to see.
I'm curious as to what might be happening. Thanks for your time.
Hans
Look at the Hero vs. Villain Win Pct for Infinitor. Data is available for 3 and 4 heroes, or for 4 heroes. For 3 & 4, the win % are:
Captain Cosmic 50%
Guise 66%
Parse 100%
PW Fanatic 100%
Sky-Scraper 66%
Sentinels 100%
For 4 heroes, the win % are:
Captain Cosmic 100%
Guise 100%
Parse 100%
PW Fanatic 100%
Sky-Scraper 100%
Sentinels 100%
So the 3-hero game that was a loss had to have been Captain Cosmic, Guise, and Sky. CC was only in one of the 4-hero games, which was a win. Guise and Sky were in both 4-hero games (wins). Parse, PW Fanatic, and the Sentinels were each in one of the 4-hero games. Hypothetically that would give us this:
LOSS:
CC
Guise
Sky
WIN:
CC
Guise
Sky
Parse
WIN:
PW Fanatic
Guise
Sky
Sentinels
That's a total of 11 hero vs villain matchups, with 3 losses for a villain win % of 27.27% Captain Cosmic's win rate is 50% (one out of two games), Guise and Sky-scraper are at 66% (two out of three) and Parse, PW Fanatic, and Sentinels are each at 100% (one out of one.)
Following your example, you seem to be saying that the percentage that is shown is not…
you seem to be saying it is…
That could be how the percentage is actually calculated, but that number seems unhelpful. The units of the numerator (games) and denominator (heroes) are different, so I'm not sure how you would even intepret it in a useful way. It also isn't what is suggested by the column heading which uses the word "games". Why would you use one denominator for the hero percentages, and a different one for the villains? Finally, if by chance a particular villain was played more frequently with 3 hero groups, and another with 5, it would mean that the first villain would have an artificially inflated win percentage and the 2nd deflated, even if their game win percentage was the same.
Also, if that were the case, it still doesn't explain how you go from 3 of something on the Progeny line to 38.46%. That just isn't possible. 38.46% has to be representing 5/13. So 5 of what and 13 of what and where is the 3 coming from?
I'll provide one more example. I looked through the underlying data to find one of the older villains whose percentage was an obvious repeating decimal where one could calculate what the underlying fraction must be. Iron Legacy has a pct listed of 44.57%, but when you look at the underlying data you can see this is actually 44.566544567% That's pretty clearly a repeating decimal, and some quick math tells us that fraction is 365/819. But the number of games listed there is 439. Where is that coming from? 819-365 is 454, so there is no help there. What is going on?
I believe that all of the numbers in the table are by some definition correct. But I am now almost certain that the column headings are not describing what is actually in the column.
That... is a question for Arathorn, I'm afraid. I don't understand all that stuff he does with the Tableu.
I will, however, check the actual data points for Infinitor and make sure something didnt get entered wrong.
Edit:
I think, what happened, was just a delay in all the data.
Before 1/8 (when the tableu was last updated) i see 4 infinitor games. However, two of them were on the 8th. it is quite possible that while updating or messing around with the data, Arathorn ended up with one game getting added in.
Currently, there are 30ish games with Infinitor in the data. When he updates it again, It should even out.
Nope. I'm saying the formula is # of hero vs. villain matchups with a LOSS / # of hero vs. villain matchups TOTAL.
Think of it this way (formatting is going to be horrible, I'm sure):
[table]
[tr][h]Hero[/h][h]Villain[/h][h]Outcome[/h][h]Game ID[/h][/tr]
[tr][td]Cosmic[/td][td]Infinitor[/td][td]LOSS[/td][td]1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Guise[/td][td]Infinitor[/td][td]LOSS[/td] [td]1[/td] [/tr]
[tr][td]Sky-Scraper[/td][td]Infinitor[/td][td]LOSS[/td] [td]1[/td] [/tr]
[tr][td]Cosmic[/td][td]Infinitor[/td][td]WIN[/td] [td]2[/td] [/tr]
[tr][td]Guise[/td][td]Infinitor[/td][td]WIN[/td] [td]2[/td] [/tr]
[tr][td]Sky-Scraper[/td][td]Infinitor[/td][td]WIN[/td] [td]2[/td] [/tr]
[tr][td]Sky-Scraper[/td][td]Infinitor[/td][td]WIN[/td] [td]3[/td] [/tr]
The total number of records is 11. The total number of hero losses is 3. The total number of distinct Game IDs is 3. The total villain win % (which is the header on the report) is 3/11 or 27.27% If the 3-hero game would've been won and one of the 4-hero games a loss, then the villain win % would be 36.36% for 4/11, still with 3 games.
3 of something on the Progeny line is pretty straightforward too - 3 games, one with 3 players, two with 5 players, where one of the 5-player games is a loss. 13 total records, 5 of which are a loss, with 3 distinct game IDs.
Or, thats what it is - which would make some sense, though thats now how the records are stored in the statistics file, but I know Arathorn does some translating of them so they work properly in tableu. Again, unfortunately, I'm not really certain how that works out.
Hmmm…ok, that makes sense, as to what is happening behind the scenes. It seems strange to me that that percentage would be based on matchups, but then you would list the number of actual games (instead of either the numerator or denominator of the percentage), but the math works out.
If that is what is happening, then I suggest that the labelling on the columns could use some work, or a few footnotes. I think that percentage itself (matchups over matchups) is not very intuitive, as it seems to me most people will be thinking in terms of "If I play in a game against Iron Legacy how likely am I to win?", and that number is not quite that. It seems odd that the percentage there should vary based on the size of the games lost, as you demonstrate in your example. The fact that the column lists games instead of matchups increases this non-intuitive feeling for me. On the other hand, with large numbers of games played, the proprotions should even out (assuming there is no bias in the size of games played against certain villains/environments) to be something close to the game over game percentage, where the actual numerators and denominators of the percentage are all roughly 4 times the number of actual games played.
But your explanation makes sense to me, Edge, thanks for taking the time to think this through. In the case of Iron Legacy, it is possible that by chance the true fraction is actually a higher multiple of the reduced fraction that gives that percentage. In other words, its actually something like 1095 winning matchups over 2457 total matchups, which 3*(365/819), with 439 game ids.
There could be Villain Win % and Villain Win % by Game as separate columns with the different calculations - that's something for Arathorn to consider. If you look at the Villain Win % for a specific number of heroes at a time, I think it should work out to be the same number for those two calculations.
Because villain difficulty often scales with the number of heroes (most get easier, at least one gets harder) it's probably more accurate to give an overall win rate based on matchups than by game count. If people want better estimates of success, they need to supply more data for the question. Asking how likely they are to win a game against a villain can often have an answer that varies wildly if they only bring three heroes instead of five.
Glad my explanation made sense :)